Thursday, July 2, 2009

MISSOULA'S MARKET TRENDS - JULY 09



See below for the latest market statistics and commentary based on information from the Missoula Organization of REALTORS®


Market information solely from listings entered into the MOR Regional Multiple Listing Service. Therefore, figures may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

Residential Market Activity in the Missoula Urban Area
(residential, AND residential with acreage)

Missoula Urban Area - Month of May

Year # of Sales Median Price Avg Days on Market
2009 67 $ 208,000 113
2008 81 $217,000 111
2007 114 $219,950 125
2006 143 $190,000 101
2005 132 $181,500 99
2004 88 $169,950 97

Missoula Urban Area - YTD - January 1 through May 31, 2009

Year # of Sales Median Price Avg Days on Market
2009 265 $215,500 128
2008 330 $206,950 116
2007 420 $205,000 131
2006 476 $189,450 115
2005 426 $179,636 112
2004 361 $165,000 111

Sales represent properties that have transferred and the transaction has closed. It is the best reliable indicator of what prices the real estate market will bear.


Residential Market Activity in Missoula County
(residential, AND residential with acreage)

Missoula County - Month of May

Year # of Sales Median Price Avg Days on Market
2009 91 $214,250 130
2008 97 $220,000 113
2007 158 $219,450 120
2006 200 $208,750 107
2005 177 $188,000 104
2004 135 $170,000

109

Missoula County - YTD - January 1 through May 31, 2009

Year # of Sales Median Price Avg Days on Market
2009 333 $220,000 137
2008 432 $216,543 126
2007 560 $215,000 131
2006 666 $200,000 121
2005 585 $186,225 122
2004 508 $169,250 120

Sales for Missoula County provide a more regional picture. However, a county representation is not a reliable indicator of the market in any of the individual and unique communities within the county.


Number of Active Listings: June 5th, 2009


Residential Condos / Townhomes Res. with Acreage Multi-Family Land
Missoula Urban Area 736 199 79 58 470

Missoula County

672 204 322 60 996
Central / North Ravalli County 103 13 281 12 273
Mineral & Sanders Counties 104 n/a 157 13 510
Granite, Powell & Deerlodge Counties 66 n/a 45 n/a 240

Active listings indicate the number of properties from which buyers can choose. An increase/decrease in the number of listings indicates seller activity and may affect buyer choices.


Is the Missoula real estate market on the upswing? That was the question posed to us recently. Hopefully, if we have learned nothing else during the last couple of years, it is the importance of doing your own research, delving beneath the surface of what the nightly news says and drawing your own conclusions.

Here's what we know: Fourth quarter 2008 showed significantly less market activity in all price ranges based on the number of sales compared to recent years and earlier in 2008. First quarter 2009 remained fairly steady at that level. Numbers aren't in yet for second quarter (ending June 30) but it appears there is increased sales activity in some price ranges. For example, sales under $150,000 are fairly flat; however there isn't a lot of inventory in that price range. On the other end of the spectrum, sales in the $350,000 and higher price range are also fairly flat.

The numbers may not support an uncategorically affirmative 'yes' to the upswing question, but they do show increased activity over the last two quarters in the $150,000 to $275,000 price range. But don't just focus on price. Add to the mix location, property condition, financing options, credit scores, appraisal requirements, personal circumstances of both the buyer and the seller, and you begin to get a whole picture. Don't fall for quick, easy answers. Consumers have been there, done that. Didn't work out so well.

So in answer to the question whether the Missoula market is on the upswing, the response should be, 'Compared to what?' In some prices, compared to the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, there is some increased activity. Is it headed back to the 2005-2006 levels? Not likely.Those were artificially high benchmarks fueled, as we know now, by a lot of other factors artificially manipulated . . . and then you have to ask, "Who wants to know?" Depending on who you are in the transaction, or even if you are in a transaction at all, the answer will no doubt vary. Finally, depending on your circumstances, the real estate activity may feel different regardless of what the numbers say.

The fact that the economic recovery continues to be focused on what is happening in real estate underscores the critical role that providing housing plays not only in economic strength but also in community strength. So keep asking the questions. Professionals in all facets of real estate are asking them too, and using all of their resources help define the response. Contrary to the old saying that an expert is a person from out of town with a briefcase, the expertise needed to analyze the local market is right here locally in the person of those brokers, lenders, title insurers and appraisers who have a stake in this community and work here everyday. It’s important to ask the questions…it’s more important to have the conversation rather than looking for a quick response.

2009 State of Missoula Housing Report

See how the 2009 housing report compares to previous years.

2006 State of Missoula Housing Report


Other market material of interest.

December 18th, 2008 Economic Update Presentation, Dr. Larry Swanson of the O'Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West


Market information is provided as a public service by the Missoula Organization of REALTORS® based on statistics generated through the MOR Regional Multiple Listing Service. This information is not based on all real estate activity and is intended to indicate general trends only and should not be used to determine what to expect in any specific neighborhood or community. Contact a REALTOR® for more specific and detailed market analysis.


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