Thursday, July 9, 2009

MISSOULA DODGING REAL ESTATE COLLAPSE

Archived Story

Missoula dodging real estate collapse
By BETSY COHEN of the Missoulian



The New York Stock Exchange continues to crash and tumble.
Communities around the nation - and the globe - are in dire financial straits.

Yet Montana's local economies are weathering the storm better than
anywhere else in the United States.

Things are so rosy here, at least when compared with elsewhere in the
country, that the real estate forecasting service Housing Predictor reported,
“They've dodged the bullet in the nation's housing depression in
North Dakota
and Montana.”

The online service, www.housing predictor.com, has much to say about
Montana in particular. Consider the opening salvo on its Montana page:

“The Big Blue Sky Country of Montana is an exception these days. Montana's
housing markets aren't making it big in the news, and are not only holding their
own in the fallout of the nation's financial mess, some are still forecast to
appreciate
in 2009.”

Statistics compiled in the 2009 Missoula Housing Report support the
upbeat news
and optimistic forecast.

Although the volume of home sales decreased by 28 percent in 2008,
home values
have only dropped slightly - about 2 percent - compared
to most other parts of the
country, such as Arizona and California,
where homes have depreciated by
double-digit percentages.

Home sales slowed dramatically last fall, but since January, Missoula Realtors
and property agents have experienced a dramatic uptick in business,
particularly f
or properties listed for $300,000 and below.

There are several reasons for the vigorous start of 2009, said Mindy Palmer,
a longtime Missoula Realtor.

New federal legislation is encouraging first-time home buyers to step into the
market
by offering an $8,000 tax credit for homes purchased in 2009. Home
mortgage rates
have fallen. Missoula and the surrounding area have a lot of
inventory. And there
are many motivated sellers.

Yet, while those incentives are profound, Palmer said she thinks there's another
big factor at play.

“The national media has been hammering the point home about a national real
estate and financial crisis, that the sky is falling and we should all run like hell to
the nearest exit,” Palmer said. “But that's not exactly happening here in Montana,
and people are starting to have confidence in that.”

“Every market is local, and we are no different,” she said. “People are finally c
oming to that realization, and that this might be a good time to consider buying.
People get that buying real estate in Montana is a smart, tangible investment.”

The real estate community is reporting more attendance at open houses,
more sales agreements being written, and more phone calls from prospective
clients,
said Bryan Flaherty, president of the Missoula Organization of Realtors.

“For me personally, I'm an appraiser and I have seen more sales activity in
the last
month than in the previous two months,” Flaherty said. “Things are
not back to
normal by any sense, but there is a positive swing we are seeing,
and I'm seeing more
appraisal orders come across as purchases and
not refinancing.”


For certain, business has picked up, said Brint Wahlberg of Re/Max
Realty in Missoula.


“In the last couple of weeks, I've had more showings on the duplexes
we have listed
than we probably had all of last year,” Wahlberg said.
“Not a lot of buyers yet, but we
are seeing more people looking,
and I think that's a really good sign that people are
starting to get
off the fence.”


Homes that are priced in the $150,000 to $250,000 range are
getting a lotof attention
these days, said Missoula developer
Collin Bangs.


“Our sales had slowed way down in November and December, but
things have
picked up substantially in January and February,” Bangs
said. “We sold three homes
in January and four in February. That is
as good as we could expect to do in
February and January in any
year, and it was a surprise to do that well.”


Bangs is keenly aware of real estate markets in other regions of
the country.
Each time the gloom and doom is reported, Bangs
said a lot of things tumble through
his mind.

“I think about how most of the country is pretty bad off,” he said.
“But my biggest t
hought is, ‘Thank God I'm in Missoula instead
of somewhere else.' ”




Read the report

To read a PDF version of the 2009 Missoula Housing
Report, go to
http://www.missoularealestate.com/userfiles/file/2009%20Missoula%20Housing%20Report%20Final-PDF.pdf.



Housing facts

Median home prices in the United States at the end of December 2008 were
down by about 25 percent from their peak in mid-2006, and in 2008 fell by 7
percent, the largest one-year decline in the past 38 years.

For Missoula, median home prices for 2008 were down 2 percent from their
highest ever level in 2007, representing the only year-to-year decline this decade.

Foreclosures nationally surged by 81 percent from 2007 to 2008. For Missoula,
foreclosures in 2008 increased by 18 percent over 2007, which represents only
1/2 of 1 percent of owner-occupied housing stock.

In the United States, building permits issued for new construction fell by
63 percent
from 2005 to 2008. The equivalent decline for the city of
Missoula was 49 percent.


Source: 2009 Missoula Housing Report



Thursday, July 2, 2009

MISSOULA'S MARKET TRENDS - JULY 09



See below for the latest market statistics and commentary based on information from the Missoula Organization of REALTORS®


Market information solely from listings entered into the MOR Regional Multiple Listing Service. Therefore, figures may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

Residential Market Activity in the Missoula Urban Area
(residential, AND residential with acreage)

Missoula Urban Area - Month of May

Year # of Sales Median Price Avg Days on Market
2009 67 $ 208,000 113
2008 81 $217,000 111
2007 114 $219,950 125
2006 143 $190,000 101
2005 132 $181,500 99
2004 88 $169,950 97

Missoula Urban Area - YTD - January 1 through May 31, 2009

Year # of Sales Median Price Avg Days on Market
2009 265 $215,500 128
2008 330 $206,950 116
2007 420 $205,000 131
2006 476 $189,450 115
2005 426 $179,636 112
2004 361 $165,000 111

Sales represent properties that have transferred and the transaction has closed. It is the best reliable indicator of what prices the real estate market will bear.


Residential Market Activity in Missoula County
(residential, AND residential with acreage)

Missoula County - Month of May

Year # of Sales Median Price Avg Days on Market
2009 91 $214,250 130
2008 97 $220,000 113
2007 158 $219,450 120
2006 200 $208,750 107
2005 177 $188,000 104
2004 135 $170,000

109

Missoula County - YTD - January 1 through May 31, 2009

Year # of Sales Median Price Avg Days on Market
2009 333 $220,000 137
2008 432 $216,543 126
2007 560 $215,000 131
2006 666 $200,000 121
2005 585 $186,225 122
2004 508 $169,250 120

Sales for Missoula County provide a more regional picture. However, a county representation is not a reliable indicator of the market in any of the individual and unique communities within the county.


Number of Active Listings: June 5th, 2009


Residential Condos / Townhomes Res. with Acreage Multi-Family Land
Missoula Urban Area 736 199 79 58 470

Missoula County

672 204 322 60 996
Central / North Ravalli County 103 13 281 12 273
Mineral & Sanders Counties 104 n/a 157 13 510
Granite, Powell & Deerlodge Counties 66 n/a 45 n/a 240

Active listings indicate the number of properties from which buyers can choose. An increase/decrease in the number of listings indicates seller activity and may affect buyer choices.


Is the Missoula real estate market on the upswing? That was the question posed to us recently. Hopefully, if we have learned nothing else during the last couple of years, it is the importance of doing your own research, delving beneath the surface of what the nightly news says and drawing your own conclusions.

Here's what we know: Fourth quarter 2008 showed significantly less market activity in all price ranges based on the number of sales compared to recent years and earlier in 2008. First quarter 2009 remained fairly steady at that level. Numbers aren't in yet for second quarter (ending June 30) but it appears there is increased sales activity in some price ranges. For example, sales under $150,000 are fairly flat; however there isn't a lot of inventory in that price range. On the other end of the spectrum, sales in the $350,000 and higher price range are also fairly flat.

The numbers may not support an uncategorically affirmative 'yes' to the upswing question, but they do show increased activity over the last two quarters in the $150,000 to $275,000 price range. But don't just focus on price. Add to the mix location, property condition, financing options, credit scores, appraisal requirements, personal circumstances of both the buyer and the seller, and you begin to get a whole picture. Don't fall for quick, easy answers. Consumers have been there, done that. Didn't work out so well.

So in answer to the question whether the Missoula market is on the upswing, the response should be, 'Compared to what?' In some prices, compared to the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, there is some increased activity. Is it headed back to the 2005-2006 levels? Not likely.Those were artificially high benchmarks fueled, as we know now, by a lot of other factors artificially manipulated . . . and then you have to ask, "Who wants to know?" Depending on who you are in the transaction, or even if you are in a transaction at all, the answer will no doubt vary. Finally, depending on your circumstances, the real estate activity may feel different regardless of what the numbers say.

The fact that the economic recovery continues to be focused on what is happening in real estate underscores the critical role that providing housing plays not only in economic strength but also in community strength. So keep asking the questions. Professionals in all facets of real estate are asking them too, and using all of their resources help define the response. Contrary to the old saying that an expert is a person from out of town with a briefcase, the expertise needed to analyze the local market is right here locally in the person of those brokers, lenders, title insurers and appraisers who have a stake in this community and work here everyday. It’s important to ask the questions…it’s more important to have the conversation rather than looking for a quick response.

2009 State of Missoula Housing Report

See how the 2009 housing report compares to previous years.

2006 State of Missoula Housing Report


Other market material of interest.

December 18th, 2008 Economic Update Presentation, Dr. Larry Swanson of the O'Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West


Market information is provided as a public service by the Missoula Organization of REALTORS® based on statistics generated through the MOR Regional Multiple Listing Service. This information is not based on all real estate activity and is intended to indicate general trends only and should not be used to determine what to expect in any specific neighborhood or community. Contact a REALTOR® for more specific and detailed market analysis.


http://www.missoularealestate.com/index.php/fuseaction/market.main/ID/0d95f240
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FIRST TIME HOME BUYER CREDIT INFO

$8,000 Home Buyer Tax Credit at a Glance

The information on this page pertains to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

  • The tax credit is for first-time home buyers only. For the tax credit program, the IRS defines a first-time home buyer as someone who has not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase.
  • The tax credit does not have to be repaid.
  • The tax credit is equal to 10 percent of the home’s purchase price up to a maximum of $8,000.
  • The credit is available for homes purchased on or after January 1, 2009 and before December 1, 2009.
  • Single taxpayers with incomes up to $75,000 and married couples with incomes up to $150,000 qualify for the full tax credit.

FOR MORE INFO VISIT: http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/index.html
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